Unconventıonal and Innovatıve Economıc Analyses Suggested By the Turkısh Esperıence

Prof. Dr. Zeyyat HATİBOĞLU

CHAPTER I

AN UNCONVENTIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY
§1- Introduction 1
§2- A Short Summary of the Unconventional Analysis of the
Turkish Economy 1
§3- A Different Approach to the Calculation of National
Income Growth and Its Level 3
§4- The Relationship Between Relative Prices of Goods-Services
and Input Prices6
§5- From Where to Where 10
1- THE ANALYSIS IN UATE IS SHIFTED TO
NONAGRICULTURAL SECTORS 10
2- RENTS 12
3- FROM SUSTAINABILITY TO INTERNAL EQUILIBRIUM 13
4- THE INADEQUACY OF MEASURING NATIONAL INCOME 14
5- THEORY FIRST 15
6- VALUE DIMENSION 15
7- THE GROWTH AND LEVEL EFFECTS 16
Conclusion 17
CHAPTER II
THE SHORT THEORY OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND
SOURCE OF GROWTH
§1- Introduction 18
§2- Source of Growth Calculations by Various Economists 24
A- The Early Analyses Based on the Source of Growth
Methodology 26
The Impact of Earning Differences on Growth 27
B - The Analysis of Growth by the World Bank 2000 28X
C- Celasun On Growth 30
D- Deniz Gökçe 31
§3- A Critical Examination 32
1- KRUGER, LEAMAN AND OECD 32
2- THE ANALYSIS BY THE WOLD BANK 32
3- DENIZ GÖKCE 33
CHAPTER III
THE FIRST ATTEMPT TO UNDERSTAND THE MEANING OF THE
MEASUREMENT OF NATIONAL INCOME IN TERMS OF DOLLARS
§1- Introduction 34
§2- Conversion of Turkish Per Capita Incomes into Dollars, the Rate
of Growth and the Level of Income (An extract from UATE) 35
NB-2011 CLARIFICATION OF 1978 WRITINGS 40
1- THE CALCULATION OF SERIES RELATING TO
1959 AND 1971 40
2- THE COMPARISON OF PER CAPITA INCOMES
ESTIMATED BY 3 DIFFERENT BASE YEAR 41
§3- The Impact of Earning Differences on National Income in Dollar 42
The Impact of Labor Allocation on the Growth of Turkish 42
National Income and Level of Income 42
COMMENTS IN 2012 48
CHAPTER IV
STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TURKEY AS A DEVELOPING
COUNTRY AND COMPARISONS WITH THE WORLD EXPERIENCE
(AN EXTRACT FROM UATE)
CHAPTER V
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COSTS AND NATIONAL INCOME
§1- Introduction 54
§2- Relative Prices and National Income (Extracts from 1995 book:
Economic Theory and Turkish Experience, pp 88-92) 54
§3- A Summary: The Impact of Relative Prices (2011) 60
§4- Comments 2012-06-0161
§5- Comment 2014-03-13 62XI
CHAPTER VI
THE DEFLATION PROBLEM
§1- Introduction 63
§2- (2014) Comments66
CHAPTER VII
THE APPRECIATION OF UATE
§1- Introduction 70
§2- Comments by Various Economists 71
A- PROFESSOR M BRONFENBRENNER AND EARNING
DIFFERENCES 71
B - SKETCHY OPINIONS 73
C - ARE MEASURES PRESCRIBED APPLICABLE? 74
D- THE BOOK BY ANNE KRUEGER AND THE
UNCONVENTIONAL ANALYSIS 75
E- THE RESPONCE TO COMMENTS BY PROFESSOR
M FRY (1978) 76
F- THE RESPONSES OF TURKISH ECONOMISTS 78
§3- Comments by Balassa-Celasun 82
§4- Overview 84
1- THE LEVEL OF INCOME IN TERMS OF DOLLARS 85
2- THE SHIFT OF RESOURCES 85
3- THE IMPACT OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION 86
4- THE PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE GROWTH RATE 86
5- THE DIFFERENCE OF THE PRESENT INTERPRETATION
FROM THE OLD 87
§5- Why Was UATE a Pioneering Book? 88
CHAPTER VIII
THE SECOND APPLICATION OF THE THEORY TO
TURKEY
§1- Introduction 90
§2- The Differentiation Between the Level and Growth Effects 90
§3- The Theory and The Turkish Case 92XII
CHAPTER IX
THE NEW VERSION OF THE THEORY OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
§1- Introduction and Overview 96
§2- A Hypothetical Example and the Comparison of National
Incomes Over Time 100
§3- The Measurement of National Income by a National
Currency or by International Currency 104
CHAPTER X
A SHORT HISTORY AND STRUCTURE OF THE TURKISH
ECONOMY
§1- Introduction 107
§2- A Short Economic History and the Structure of the
Turkish Economy 108
§3- Where Does the Economy Go in 2005-2008 119
PESSIMISTIC EXPECTATIONS 120
§4- The Economy of Turkey in 2007- 2011 121
CHAPTER XI
THE VALIDATION OF THE THEORY OF GROWTH BY
OBSERVATIONS TURKISH ECONOMY
§1- Introduction (The Main Analysis) 125
§2- The Comparison of Income Increase over a Longer Period by
Means of Diagrams 133
§3- The Level and Growth of National Income in
Terms of Dollars and National Currency 141
CHAPTER XII
THE EXPLANATIONS OF THE GROWTH OF THE TURKISH
ECONOMY BY VARIOUS ECONOMISTS
§1- Introduction 145
§2- The Implications of The Empirical Research 145
TRANSFORMATION IN INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE IN
TURKEY AND THE IMPACT OF DEMAND 146XIII
PATTERNS OF GROWTH (Chenery) 147
A- THE OPERATION OF THE MARKET ECONOMY,
SOCIALISTIC OPINIONS AND GROWTH 149
B- THE IMPACT OF CAPITAL INFLOW150
C- CELASUN ON GROWTH 150
D- SECTOR AND EXPENDITURE SHARES 151
§3- Comments on Various Interpretations on Growth in Turkey 153
1- CAPITAL 153
2- THE CRITICISM OF THE CHENERY APPROACH 153
3- VARIOUS CAUSES AFFECTING GROWTH 154
§4- On The Trend Growth Rate of National Income in
National Currency 155
Introduction 155
A- ANNOND, CHIHIBBER AND VAN BERGEN 156
B- THE EXPECTATIONS OF SOME TURKISH
ECONOMISTS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF
ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY 156
C- METIN MÜNIR 158
The Criticism of the Arguments by Some Economists 159
THE CRITICISM OF ANAN, CHHIBBER, AND VAN
BERGEN 159
THE ARGUMENTS BY METİN MÜNİR 159
CHAPTER XIII
MISPLACED COMMENTS BY 2 DISTINGUISHED
ECONOMISTS ON THE GROWTH OF THE TURKISH
ECONOMY
§1- Introduction 160
§2- Comments By Professor Zeyyat Hatiboglu (1979) 161
CHENERY’S COMMENTS ON COMMENTS 163
A NOTE IN 2008 by Zeyyat Hatiboğlu 164
§3- The Closeness of the Turkish Economy to Outside and the
Increase of the Growth Rate (O Yenal) 165XIV
CHAPTER XIV
THE MEASURE OF NATIONAL INCOME BY PURCHASING
POWER PARITY
§1- The Impact of an Increase in Exports of Comparative and
Noncomparative Advantage Goods on the Economy (1991) 169
§2- The Factor Intensity and Growth (1991) 174
§3- A Critical Examination of PPP 178
§4- Validation By The Turkish Case 181
Now General Remarks: (Written in 1985) 183
§5- The Measurement Of National Income By Domestic
Purchasing Power 184
The Domestic Purchasing Power of Currency Method 185
Comments on a Research Work on the Expression of the
Turkish National Income Using the Domestic Purchasing
Power Method 186
APPEDIX TO CHAPTER XIV
A TEST OF THE METHOD OF THE PURCHASING POWER PARITY
(PPP) IN MEASURING NATIONAL INCOME
§1- The Traditional Explanation 190
§2- Criticism of the Traditional Approach 197
§3- Conclusion 202
CHAPTER XV
UNCONVENTIONAL IDEAS ON EMPLOYMENT
§1- Introduction 206
§2- Economists’ Arguments About Factors Determining
Employment A Critical Summary 207
§3- The Unconventional Analysis of Employment 211
CHAPTER XVI
UNCONVENTIONAL FACTORS DETERMINING
DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME
§1- Introduction 214
§2- The Conventional Analyses of Income Distribution 215XV
THE CONVENTIONAL ANALYSES OF INCOME
DISTRIBUTION 217
A- The Political Aspects of Income Distribution 217
B- The Conventional Analyses of Income Distribution
within Agricultural and Nonagricultural Sectors218
DISTRIBUTION IN AGRICULTURE 218
DISTRIBUTION IN NONAGRICULTURAL SECTORS 219
C- IDEOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF INCOME DISTRIBUTION 220
§3- Unconventional Dimensions in The Explanation of
Income Distribution in Turkey 221
CHAPTER XVII
FLUCTUATIONS OF NATIONAL INCOME AND MACROANALYSIS
§1- Macroanalysis 227
§2- The Basic Relationships In Conventional Macroanalysis
And Some Macroanalysis For 1973-1987 Period To Explain
Fluctuations In Turkey 230
1- EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INVESTMENTS
AND NATIONAL INCOME 231
2- THE GROWTH OF PERMANENT INCOME 232
3- PRIVATE INVESTMENT 232
4- FOREIGN FUNDS INFLOW AND GROWTH 232
5- FISCAL DEFICITS 233
6- THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTEREST RATE,
SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS 233
7- THE EXPLANATION OF THE VOLATILITY IN THE
WB 2000 REPORT 234
The Validation of Macroanalysis by The Turkish
Experience 234
§3- Comments for Macroanalysis 236
§4- Macro Models 237
CHAPTER XVIII
INFLATION AND PRICES (1998-2004)
§1- Introduction 241
§2- Unconventional Analyses 243XVI
§3- Analyses by Leading Turkish Economists 246
An Analysis Emphasizing the Importance of the Public Debt 252
§4- Validation of Unconventional Comments in Turkey 253
CHAPTER XIX
THE FINANCIAL SECTOR
§1- Introduction 259
§2- Unconventional Analyses 260
§3- MFry on Financial Repression and the Dynamics of Infation 265
§4- Capital Markets in Turkey 267
§6- Discussions on the Benefcial Aspects and Disadvantages
of the Deepening of Financial Markets in Turkey 270
Arguments Put Forward by M Fry (Fry, 1995) 271
§7- Discussions on Public Finance 276
The anatomy of expenditure 277
The fnance of public investments 278
Criticism of Analyses of Public Finance Policies 278
CHAPTER XX
CRITICAL COMMENTS ABOUT THE ANALYSES
OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE
§1- Introduction 280
§2- Unconventional Comments on Writings About Factors
Determining Exports281
§3- Arguments Against the Favourable Impacts of Exchange
Rates on Exports 285
Inconclusive Arguments Against Devaluation
(Extracts From UATE) 287
Conclusion as to the Devaluation 291
§4- The Negation of Irrelevant Arguments 291
1- The expectation of Professor Kazgan is negated by facts
Let us look at Kazgan’s fgures seriously 291
2- Negation of Other Arguments 292
§5- The Magnifcation of The Loss Caused By The Deterioration
of External Terms of Trade 293XVII
§6- The Discussions Of Current Account Defcits 296
IMPORT CONTENTS OF EXPORTS298
§7- Current Defcits and Wages 301
APPENDIX TO CHAPTER XX
THE EARLY UNCONVENTIONAL THEORETICAL WRITINGS: THE
MAGNIFICATION OF THE LOSS DUE TO DETERIORATING
TERMS OF TRADE (THE ORIGINAL VERSION)
§1- Introduction 302
§2- The Example: The Magnifying Effects of Increased Exports
on the Impoverishment Caused by a Deterioration of Terms
of Trade (1989) 305
A New Measurement of National Income 310
How does one measure the change in national income after
switching to export orientation? 311
§3- Comments by Professor Celasun on the Suggestion About
Measuring National Income by Tradable Goods Prices 312
§4- Comments on the 1989 Example Leading to a New Concept
of National Income (2008) 321
§5- Comments in 2012 325
CHAPTER XXI
THE SWITCH FROM INWARD TO OUTWARD
ECONOMIC POLICY
§1- Introduction 327
§2- Unconventional Analyses 329
§3- The Criticism of Import Substituting Strategy by Krueger 331
1- DOMESTIC RESOURCE COST 332
2- EXCESS REAL COSTS OF THE SYSTEM 333
Macroeconomic Effects of the Inward Looking strategy 333
Recent Writings by Krueger on the Turkish Economy 337
§4- Criticism of Import Substitution Arguments 338XVIII
CHAPTER XXII
THE DETERMINATION OF EXCHANGE RATES
§1- Introduction 342
§2- More on The Criticism of The Traditional Approaches of
The Determination of Exchange Rates 346
CHAPTER XXIII
MARKET ECONOMY OR SOCIALISM
§1- Introduction 351
§2- The Criticism of The Market Economy After A Globalization
Policy Was Adopted 353
§3- An Extract From Doğan Avcıoğlu357
§4- The Socialist Ideology in 2004 360
§5- Social Democracy In Turkey 361
§6- The State Economic Enterprises and Etatism 363
Appendice to § 6- The Controversy on SEE’s in 1966 369
§7- More on the Economists on the Left 371
§8- Professor Erinç Yeldan on Globalization 374
APPENDIX I
TOWARD UNCONVENTIONAL ANALYSIS
A Short Biography 379
67 Years Devoted to Learning and Improving Economic Analyses 382
BIBLIOGRAPHY AND REFERENCES 387
INDEX 399